1 socialfinance.org.uk Evaluation of the Outcomes and Implementation of the Think Family Database and its Associated Products socialfinance.org.uk 2 socialfinance.org.uk Contents 2 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Introduction 8 2.1 Context for Evaluation 8 2.2 Rationale for the creation of the TFD 9 3. What is the Think Family Database and its associated products? 10 3.1 Think Family Database 10 3.2 Targeted Risk Models 14 3.3 Think Family Education 16 3.4 Strategic and Aggregated Views and Qlik Apps 18 4. Methods 20 4.1 Introduction 20 4.2 Clarifying the Theory of Change 20 4.3 Testing the Theory of Change 21 4.4 Limitations 22 4.5 Evaluation Governance 23 5. Evaluation of the outcomes of the TFD and its associated products 24 5.1 Introduction 24 5.2 Think Family Database (TFD) 24 5.3 Think Family Education (TFE) 35 5.4 Targeted Risk Models 42 5.5 Cost-benefit Analysis 49 6. Evaluation of the implementation of the TFD and associated products 52 6.1 Introduction 52 6.2 Project Set-up 52 Contents 3 socialfinance.org.uk 6.3 Project Implementation 56 6.4 Training and Support 63 6.5 Information Governance 65 7 Conclusion 70 7.1 Outcomes 70 7.2 Implementation 71 8 Recommendations 73 9 Appendices 77 Appendix 1 – History of the Supporting Families Programme 77 Appendix 2 - List of documents, interviews and survey answers 78 Appendix 3 – Who created the TFD? 81 Appendix 4 – Data Processing and Technical Infrastructure of the TFD 82 Appendix 5 – Information governance 86 Appendix 6 – Users of the TFD 87 Appendix 7 – Targeted Risk Models: Technical Detail & Reason for Creation 91 Appendix 8 – Summarised Elements of the TFD: Description, Users, and Reason for Creation 95 Appendix 9 - Detailed CBA methodology 97 Appendix 10 – Technical Advisory Group membership 108 Social Finance Limited