. In doing so, we were able to arrive at a rounded understanding of the value and effectiveness of the TFD as an approach, as well as determining whether further benefits could be realised by improvements in implementation. Our research was therefore guided by two overarching questions: 1. What outcomes does the TFD enable for practitioners and managers at Bristol City Council? 2. How has the implementation of the TFD affected the delivery of these outcomes? We used a two-stage process to answer these questions. The first stage involved us speaking to those involved in developing the TFD and its associated products, and senior leaders, to clarify their theory of change for the TFD and associated products. We then embarked on a longer multi- methodological research process to test the extent to which this theory of change, both outcomes and implementation activities, had been realised in practice. 4.2 Clarifying the Theory of Change The theory of change model we adopted included problems, activities to address these problems (and how these should be carried out), and outcomes for practitioners, managers and senior leaders. We did not include an assessment of impact for service users, since extrapolating the contribution of the TFD alongside other significant factors, would be overly complex and potentially unreliable. In February and March 2023, we conducted 10 interviews with current and former staff of Bristol City Council (Appendix 2) to firstly develop an understanding of the TFD. This yielded a decision to focus our research on the original TFD product developed for early intervention teams, aggregated views of TFD data for senior leaders, the Think Family Education (TFE) app developed for schools, as well as targeted risk models (CCE / CSE and NEET models) that are